AusBonsai

Brad Loma wrote:Hi John, Thanks for your comments; let’s take a look at them. Firstly you say that a tree is only worth what someone will pay for it. That being the case, you may end up selling the tree to the wrong people, the wrong market.

You are totally missing the point Brad...What I am referring to is the price the market will bear. That is how you determine price...none of the categories you suggest mean anything it terms of the market price...go to Japan and price trees or material...your $ will go about 10x as far as it does at home, perhaps even more...why??? because there is a vastly different market in Japan...a material rich market. I am not sure about your country but I suspect it is the same as mine... material poor market...it should follow then that we will pay more for lesser material.

Brad Loma wrote:...With regards to there being no formula that will ever work, I beg to differ here, if there wasn’t, nurseries would not exist, and for that matter most business would fail, it’s a little like going in blindly, without a plan to recover your investment. Sure you lose on some trees, but that just adds to the cost of the other stock yet to sell.

Here again I think you misunderstand my point...If there were a formula as you suggest, would not every business succeed??? Most ultimately fail in the US??? Where does quality fit into to your formula... If person A can produce better stock in the less time than person B can...aren't buyers going to be willing to pay more for the better stock??? How does your formula consider both time and quality??? it can't effectively. The bottom line is this.. generalized formula's don't work ...businesses succeed because they find their own unique formula..

Here is an even bigger question? Who makes up the customer base in your market??? I would contend that there are only a few individuals, mainly collectors, who are willing to pay about anything for trees they like.. and your $700 tree might fly with one of them...but this is a very small percentage of the customer base. The majority of the base are hobbyists that would typically prefer to collect or grow their own material...and as the cost rises this percentage increases... I would guess that a huge percentage of the folks who frequent bonsai forums have never even considered buying material in that price range for a variety of reasons.

Factors like these also have a huge impact on market value...sure those high dollar trees might sell to an extremely limited market but its not very realistic to expect most hobbyists to pay those kinds of prices regardless of what the material is or isn't. Therefore if you want to consistently market trees your going to have to adjust your formula or rethink the material you are offering. Please forgive me as I am sure you think what I am saying here is out of bounds for the scenario you proposed in this post...I am only trying to bring a little realism to the conversation.

respectfully,
John

anttal63 wrote: in my opinion, bon bon is within the guide lines. and has also hit the nail on the head with a sledge hammer! dont just blow this post off as not sticking to your guide lines.

No its not at all. I asked for trees of similar refinement. (24 years and thats the result...come on now). Please contribute positively or not all. See the original question and try to stay focused on it, please.
B.

johng wrote:I would contend that there are only a few individuals, mainly collectors, who are willing to pay about anything for trees they like.. and your $700 tree might fly with one of them...but this is a very small percentage of the customer base.

John this tree would never fly as you put it with a serious collector. Its a nice tree, its a pleasing tree, but not the tree for a serious collector, not by a long shot. John with all due respect, i have shared my way of calculating an estimate of a tree and asked for how others do the same. I really dont want to go off topic, lets try and stick to the objectives mate. I really appreciate your well thought out posts.
B.

Brad Loma wrote:

anttal63 wrote: in my opinion, bon bon is within the guide lines. and has also hit the nail on the head with a sledge hammer! dont just blow this post off as not sticking to your guide lines.

No its not at all. I asked for trees of similar refinement. (24 years and thats the result...come on now). Please contribute positively or not all. See the original question and try to stay focused on it, please.
B.

brad sorry pal it was early this morning at 6am and i just couldn't help my self. i truly thought they were valid points according to where the discussion was at. "obviously not". again my apologies.

Hi Brad,

I have been giving this thread some thought as I think it is a really good question you posed and one which affects us all.

Without doubt there are measurable and determinable criteria which can be defined for Bonsai. You listed some of the criteria above.

We all use it as a guideline and always should.
Without guidelines we are blind – or are we?

I still think value is a personal thing and at the end of the day is measured by each individual differently, no matter what the formulas may be.

After 27 years I will probably get divorced for using this example of why beauty is in the eye of the beholder….

The leaves still have the same hue, the branches are still juvenile (although starting to droop a little) the bark is good and as for the nebari – well !!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Seriously though….
Below are two examples of purchases I made showing two extremes

The first was a privet stump at $150 and the second was a well seasoned and mature fig of around 30 years for $300
Both were a bargain, and yet in many respects I regret not paying more.

The privet was immature and only had imagination working for it.
But the seller had passed away and I would have, and still would give anything to have this person back again

The second, the fig, had been meticulously cared for and styled.
The owner had and still gives much more to the world of Bonsai than he could ever take. He is well known around Australia and many other people purchased his trees.

The true reason for him selling his trees was worth 100 more zero’s to the end of the tree price.
I wish I had won Lotto last week and could have made a difference to the cause he sought to help

So at that end of the day, I reckon formula and criteria and criteria should be applied. But as long as basic logic and criteria are met – I reckon the beauty we perceive dictates the price we are prepared to pay.
We are all individuals and therefore the price we are prepared to pay will differ in each instance.

Pretty heavy stuff for a Sunday night hey
Anyway, just an opinion

Regards
Steve

Steve, thank you so much for your time and thoughts. Yes there are always exceptions, such as your beautiful fig tree. I also have purchased some trees under the same conditions. Our older brothers and sisters in this hobby grow frail in old age and can no longer do the heavier tasks associated with the larger trees. This is something we will all be faced with at some point in our lives, hopefully....! I like to think that someday when it happens to me, i will return the gesture to a much younger enthusiast in the hope the trees live on.

I think you are pretty close to the money with your remark "I reckon formula and criteria and criteria should be applied. But as long as basic logic and criteria are met – I reckon the beauty we perceive dictates the price we are prepared to pay". It is that criteria that we should relate back to a base price, i believe. The additional dollar value above that is most definately the WOW factor of the individual tree and thats where the market comes into play, it has to either agree with you and pay the price or not. I guess it gives us a measure of negotiating room to make the sale or hold onto the tree hoping that someone else will come along and agree as to its value.
At the end of the day i think you are spot on in your ideas, or at least, they are in line with the way i think.
Thank you very much Steve.
B.

Brad Loma wrote:
John with all due respect, i have shared my way of calculating an estimate of a tree and asked for how others do the same. I really dont want to go off topic, lets try and stick to the objectives mate. I really appreciate your well thought out posts.
B.

no worries Brad...you shared your method for calculating value and I shared my opinion that its meaningless to do so... until somebody ponies up some money your calculations have no relevance. Continue on with your misguided objectives, I won't waste your time or mine on this post any more mate:)

the thread should be titled; WELCOME TO BRADS WORLD

Hi Steve,
I would like to invoke the formula please regarding that Nerifolia fig !!!
I would suggest that you've owned it for about 4 years now, used a bit of fertilizer and repotted a couple of times as well as the daily maintenance.
It's now worth a lazy $500 and I'll pick it up on the weekend and have that coffee you promised, or I'll swap you with the $2000 Fig I showed you.

Each tree is unique and its value is definately in the eye of the beholder.
I totally agree with John and Antall's logic!!!

cheers
Dave

Hi Dave
Maybe I wasn’t as clear as I hoped ….whilst some basic criteria can be used to benchmark a “logical price” eg if you had a $5 starer plant in a $200 pot, then the tree would have to be worth at least $205.

BUT this example is a rare exception, literally all other trees can only be valued by what the purchaser / market is prepared to pay ie what they perceive the value to be.

As stated in my first response, hourly rates cant be applied as they are different for each and every one of us.

I think your $500 example for my fig is a good example of why a theoretical calculation can never work in the majority of instances.

Apart from the fact that you used the wrong hourly rate (my apprentice rate vs current rate), the tree from my perspective is worth much more than $500 and in fact is literally priceless for personal reasons.

So how about coming down to have that coffee and we can talk about the logic of price and that nice fig of yours that you are minding for me

Regards
Steve

Hi Brad,
Great topic to discuss here and I have been considering doing something similar regarding a valuation thread.

I was hoping to get some photos of my cedar over the weekend but with two sick little girls and trying to work for home, bonsai has to take a back step.

The Cedar Deodara shown below I have had in my collection for about 8 years (I think). I purchased from a well known Bonsai collector in country Victoria and it she claims it was container grown for about 25-30 years. I haven’t changed the shape too much and have attempted to bring the branches down and further develop the foliage pads.

Some of you in my club Bonsai Northwest have seen this tree for sale about a year ago and it was never sold.

In 2007 AABC convention Marco helped me make some styling changes to this tree. Does his work on the tree add value?

Here are my thoughts on the how I priced this tree when I attempted to sell it:

Factors that influenced the price:
- Initial cost of material 8 years ago affected the price.
- Period taken to develop the tree - Cedars are slow growing in terms of creating foliage pads and setting branches in place. A 40+ year old cedar must be factored into when setting a price.
- All design aspects must be considered. For this tree the age of the tree is a huge factor as well as the ramification, trunk, nebari etc which really is about the age of the tree and how long it has been a ‘Bonsai’. How long it has been in a pot and styled for plays a big part too.
- In comparison I haven’t seen too many Cedars like this around with the ramification and age of this.
- Foliage is compact and small.
- Overall the refinement of a cedar to this level takes a long time I believe.
- Marco was involved in styling this tree.

Photos were from AABC 2007. Will attempt to get another photo in the coming weekend. It has filled out more.

Didn’t factor cost of labour, growing media, percentage of loses, consumables.

I have purposely not stated the price I had on it at the Sale which was in 2007. Anyone would like to attempt to price this? To the BNW members who remember seeing this and the price, please refrain from answering

I intend to put this on sale again this coming October to see if I have any luck.

David

Hello David,
I would love to consider a price for this tree and will put considerable effort into doing so, i will do that tonight after work and thank you for your input into this thread, it is appreciated. I feel we are getting somewhere with it now.
B.

DavidN wrote:
Didn’t factor cost of labour, growing media, percentage of loses, consumables.

I have purposely not stated the price I had on it at the Sale which was in 2007. Anyone would like to attempt to price this? To the BNW members who remember seeing this and the price, please refrain from answering

I intend to put this on sale again this coming October to see if I have any luck.

David

Hopefully I won't offend yet another person by offering my humble estimation.
I spend most of my free time in the past three years looking and "shopping" at Bonsai. I think I will try and see how other people think.
I know putting a price on others' tree is always risky and I do so only when asked for.
Your tree is nice and best of all, you have some photo attached so that we know it's size well by compare with the men standing beside it.
I presume the back branches are nice too as I could not see them properly in the photo..................

Now, Ladies and Gentleman, my humble estimation is..........................................$2500.( $2000 to $3000)

I have seen another Cedar for sale. similare size and refinement, asking for $1500. It's an Atlantic Blue, though. I personally think your one is more graceful. I certainly take into acct that it's 40+years old, though.I didn't factor the $40/year X 40 year formula into the estimation. I think that's highly irrelevant.[/

hey david are you pointing fingers? well ya safe, i wasnt there last year and have no idea what you were asking. good luck selling it this year!

gee wiz bon bon what made you change from your original quote of 2000 / (1500 - 2500 ) ? fact or fear?

anttal63 wrote:hey david are you pointing fingers? well ya safe, i wasnt there last year and have no idea what you were asking. good luck selling it this year!

gee wiz bon bon what made you change from your original quote of 2000 / (1500 - 2500 ) ? fact or fear?

I looked at it again and again after my first post and like it more.
I honestly increase my estimation.
Also, just o be safe........................you know

yeah i know!