My opinon on why bonsai is in trouble and how to fix it.

[63pmp]

My point is artist don't get paid for there time, but on the quality of there work.

As soon as you stick a tree in a pot it is no longer hobby supplies but an artwork. The buyer will determine if it is good or bad art.

Paul

[Daluke]

People spend money on Bonsai and don't invest in it.

I'm not aware of a catalogue or register of prized Bonsai in Australia like there is art.

Is there anyone who values Bonsai and grades it? Like an independent body like there is in numismatics. Maybe a certificate of authenticity transferable between owners. Might help with insurance and ensuring something is styled by a particular person.

[kcpoole]

How many of these trees are out there? Howmany trees in pots are just sitting on benches. Why is there no interest in makeover bonsai? Surely even nurseries could profit from mskeover trees purchaded from an suction?

Paul

I know Ray has people bring trees to him for maintenance and work and he charges for that time.
Is there enough profit for him (in the australian market) to source trees, work them and improve them, then resell them?

Ken

[Grant Bowie]

I know I pay a high hourly rate to have my car fixed or serviced; and I charge as equally a high rate to fix or service other peoples Bonsai.

I could have all the work I want if I was to work for a cheap rate but I will only be paid to work on other peoples trees if they value their tree and my time.

I, and lots of others, do however do lots of stuff for free; volunteering at the NBPCA, helping at the club, AABC, BFA and fun weekend workshops with friends; and Ausbonsai from time to time and generally giving free advice when asked.

I don't believe Bonsai is in trouble at all; nurseries close when people and their backs get older; law of nature. They are difficult to sell as a going concern; often the price of real estate alone will stop easy entry into the game.

Bonsai Studio Canberra is now up and running by the way. I don't sell or grow nursery stock any more but I do feel they are often grossly underpriced.

Grant

[bonsaisensation]

It was interesting to read bonsaisensations post about what people want from a nursery. And that, sadly, a nursery was planning to close down in Sydney. But what is the real issue here? Why is it that bonsai is not developing in Australia? Let's look at it; Sydney has quadrupled in population since the early eighties, but it still only supports about 6 nurseries, about the same number as there was in the eighties. Really, there should be 24 nurseries in Sydney by now, what's going on?

I think the main problem is that bonsai are too expensive, and starter trees (that is 1-4 year old trees in plastic pots) are too cheap. I look at bonsai (ie trained trees in bonsai pots) offered in nurseries and on average these bonsai are 5-6 times more expensive than they are really worth.

Over priced bonsai causes a lot of problems;

Firstly; people look at nursery trees to judge the value of their own trees. When all the bonsai everywhere are overpriced, they don't sell. The circulation of bonsai, from experienced to intermediate to inexperienced practitioners stops. People with less experience are not prepared to buy expensive developed trees because they may die on them and they've lost their money; so the market dries up. People who buy trees are people starting a collection, so if there are no new people coming into the hobby because trees are too expensive, then there is no market for nurseries to sell to.

Secondly; trees that are overvalued sit on benches forever. This is a problem as most people only have so much space, and if the benches are full, they stop buying trees. This is a big problem for nurseries. The total national space available for trees gets full and the market stops.

Thirdly; people won't cull their own dud trees because they perceive they have value, which clogs up the benches with rubbish that no one wants. People look at overpriced rubbish in bonsai nurseries and think their own rubbish trees have value, so the national collection of trees doesn't improve. Rubbish has to be culled if bonsai is to improve in this country. It happens in everything else, farming, manufacturing, professions such a doctoring, why not in bonsai?

Fourthly; starter trees are too cheap. I go to Ray Nesci and buy 2 year old cuttings for a few dollars, this is how much they cost 20 years ago! So how does a nursery make money, they don't, not on starters. They have to put huge mark ups on rubbish bonsai and hope to sell them to people ignorant of what good trees are. The low price of untrained trees is happening across the nursery industry, Bunnings, Big W and other stores have forced plant nurseries out of the market and now they dictate prices. If we want bonsai nurseries to continue we should be prepared to pay 10 - 20 dollars for a young starter tree, $30- $40 for something in a 200mm pot. This will make nurseries profitable again.

To fix this price imbalance we need a commodities market for bonsai, and an education program for people to learn the real cost of starter plants and not go to big stores to buy starters.

Bonsai are a commodity and have to be treated as such, we need an auction house that operates 4-6 times a year in every capital city, that anyone can go to, to sell and buy bonsai. It has to be available to anyone. Only this way can the real baseline value of a bonsai be established.

The problem is bonsai is an art, and art is only worth what someone wants to pay for it. Most of the time its value is only perceived to be something. So I have a tree, I think it's worth $2000 but if only one person is prepared to buy it a $20, then that is what it is truly worth. And bonsai people have no real idea what a tree is worth because of the inflated prices of nurseries skews their perceived value. Only a regular, frequently operated auction house, a commodities market, can define the real value of bonsai.
As prices become realistic, beginners will buy more developed trees and not worry about losing them, people will cull rubbish from the benches because there not worth anything, and trees will be traded and moved around for other people to practice and develop, because they become affordable to do so.

This will take time, maybe 5-10 years for prices to become established, so it will require someone with a lot of money to lose to start up an unprofitable auction house, or a national institution will need to run it, such as the bonsai clubs association.
I see this as the only way for bonsai to improve and develop in this country.

What do you think?

Paul

hi Paul
here is a link to the bonsai art of japan episode 42, the last minute or so talked about this model of auctioning in japan. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxMT2nqvfeY
i like this idea of auction/trade between growers. it allows us to unload excess stock to fellow growers and each grower can then specialize in their chosen varieties. let's face it, it is near impossible to grow every species from scratch and dedicate the time to each tree to reach their bonsai potential.
as for the education part, with respect, a lot of growers also need to be educated on how to produce quality stock. and the quality of the stock we produce is dictated by the demands of the bonsai public and communities. if the majority of people wants trees with big fat trunks, then we will produce them to cater for the demands. and if people wants sticks in a pot, then that's what we will produce......you get the picture. so really, the growers are only growing what they think people wants. so if the bonsai public desires something else, well, someone better speak up.

regards

[thoglette]

Some quotes from those in the trade

...My practical answer why bonsai is in trouble is because it's impossible to find a good starter bonsai.

A tree in the ground takes little time. Maybe 10 - 20 minutes per year?? ...There is lots in the infrastructure and other inputs - fertiliser, cost of supplying and applying water, weeding, etc ...Cost of the land ...I could not maintain an income from bonsai here in Australia.

I charge as equally a high rate to fix or service other peoples Bonsai.

And someone noted the cost of pots-on-shelves and the cost from stick to stick-in-pot

Some notes from those on the side lines

Bonsai was at its peak 20 years ago and has fizzled out to a smaller group of enthusiasts these-days.

Like most "hobbies" and even certain "arts". Do you know that fencing was once as equally popular as tennis in .au?
These things are cyclical and subject to fashion - an expensive bonsai in the bad-guy's office was a necessary prop in '80's TV shows

It seems quite a few people think they're bonsai masters after 5 years experience in the hobby.

+1 This applies across a lot of DIY/Craft hobbies. Combined with an unwillingness to apprentice for four years. In this case, in Japan.

A fellow Aus bonsai person said it VERY WELL when he declared that wealthier people need to become involved in Bonsai.

Unfortunately true. Old cars didn't become valuable because people loved them. They became valuable because seriously wealthy people loved them - who were willing not just to pay for the cars but the whole infrastructure required AND the labour of skilled specialists.

..bonsai art of japan

And we return the source. The nice thing about web 2.0 is that the gaijin apprentices in Japan have been keeping blogs, providing the opportunity for a vicarious view into that world. Some observations

Like expensive cars, expensive bonsai in Japan aren't usually maintained by their owners - rather by known specialists. Indeed they may only have one or two of their collection at their residence (or office) at any one time - the rest are in being cared for by professionals.

Each bit of the industry specialises in particular stages of development
Bonsai stock tends to be field grown and growth for significantly longer than here - often changing nurseries/fields two or three times in the process with lower quality stock being diverted to retail along the way.

Bonsai created by "masters" are a small subset of the market - and like haute couture are at the very pricey end of the market. But they provide opportunities down the food chain for mass-produced, lower quality "me too" product (not quite "knock offs" but close) for those who want some of the cachet on a ramen budget.

Finally,even in Japan, bonsai collection is considered a hobby for old men. Artistically potted trees are much more common Vietnam

My point?
As long as bonsai remains the province of hobbyists there will be no "industry" - rather a barely profitable sideline for a few dedicated souls.

To have an industry will require top-end product (trees and services - likely both imported) and a marketing effort utterly focused on those that can value it and also afford it. Eg. the Japanese embassy, major Japanese companies and their expat executives. Probably on a full-service lease basis.

Once that is established, the second market would be high-nett-worth Japanophiles who may be interested in actually owning bonsai. Australian grown product (especially species that cannot be imported) and Australian natives will follow afterwards once the top end start recognising that there's a few gems amongst all the dross the hobbyists own.

But this will still remain a small industry (like classic car restoration) until a bonsai becomes culturally as important as a Very Large TV or SUV.

Impossible? Just remember that, once upon a time, we didn't drink wine or real coffee in this country. Now every house has a wine rack and espresso machine

[Pup]

AQIS has made it hard for us in the west to purchase good trees that are not readily available here. We were asked to donate trees to the NBPCA, I personally know 4 people whose trees were worthy, but would not because they were not able to get them back.

So those trees are only seen locally, I like Grant will work on others trees to improve them, but not for nothing. I like Grant offer all I can to clubs and groups in WA for free, just fuel cost and accommodation if it involves overnight, and a feed.

I think Bonsai is going along fine we are getting better at it, with all of the overseas teachers coming and showing us. They do insist we use more native material though.
In the last few years I have been to a couple of Conventions, and have seen some magnificent trees on .The owners of these trees participate at club level to help improve the quality of trees, I have a saying, revisit your trees every year to look at improving it.
Most senior enthusiasts do not need too many trees. Their purchases are mainly Pots and wire, soil components.
When trees get too heavy they get sold, I will add not given away, a quality tree though too heavy for one individual, is not for another, so fire sales are not what is needed.
I have 3 exhibition quality trees up for sale at the moment, they have been like this for 3 years.
No serious buyers, tire kickers yes but buyers no.
Just my I think we are doing OK also.
Regards Pup

[lackhand]

From what I can see/read Australian bonsai is doing alright. To put things in perspective, the city I live in (Phoenix) is roughly comparable to Sydney in population, and compared to the 6 bonsai nurseries there we have 0 here. Yes, zero bonsai nurseries and zero bonsai professionals - and usually no mallsai at the local big box places either. There are other places in the US that have better resources for bonsai, but they're a long drive or flight away.

We do, however, have some pretty good auctions going on through Facebook that have made finding and purchasing good starter trees, tools, pots, etc. possible. I agree that it helps with valuing things and helping people be realistic about their trees' value. It also allows you to move stuff on if no longer wanted.

I'll bow out now, because my knowledge of bonsai in Australia comes from this forum mainly, so I don't have much to add. But I sure wish I had six nurseries to choose from!

[Reece]

I'm creating healthy and stylish trees that will hopefully be the first of many bonsai a new bonsai lover will enjoy - and by pairing it with amazing after sale support and education I hope to create new bonsai hobbyists that will enjoy the craft for decades to come.

Sounds good man! Let us know when you are up and running....

[adge0001]

I guess I'm still considered young in the bonsai community. I've been doing this hobby on and off for nearly 18 years. I'm 33 now. Probably wasted the majority of those years as I didn't have the guidance of a club or nursery owner to give me advise. It was all based out of youthful enthusiasm. Anyway, I feel a lot more comfortable now thanks to the help of my local club, this forum, and Tien. I've gotten two friends my age into bonsai during my time. I'll do my part to pass on my passion for bonsai to my 2 year old daughter. She has a Japanese maple I took as a cutting about the time she was born. It's only 7-10cm tall with a 1.5cm trunk circumference. Every tree in a pot she sees, is referred to as, "daddy's bonsai." She likes to hold her little maple and water with the hose. She helps me fertilize occasionally, also. I see bonsais future as a positive one. I now live closer to bonsai sensation and their stock is some of the best I've seen. The Bonsai World looks good from my end. I've been called an idealist in the past. "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one..." [SMILING FACE WITH SMILING EYES]


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[rookie93]

For me a big part of the problem is when you walk into a bonsai nursery & can buy a stock tree for $8, go back a week later & the exact same tree is now in an $8 pot with no training or even pruning but the price jumps to $49.

How much time does it take to create that $49 tree?
Materials = 8 + 8 + 4 ( Wire, Mesh, fertiliser, etc) = $20, Leaves about $29 for labour. is that a decent return?

Ken

Those are all retail prices Ken... how much margin was built into those prices to begin with?
$29 labour for about oohh 10mins tops.. so $174 per hour.. not a bad return

So you see it as a fair price, ok. That tree is then bought by a beginner and they proudly come to this forum & show it off, only to be ridiculed & told to give it some movement & stick it in a big grow pot for a few years...

[bodhidharma]

Those are all retail prices Ken... how much margin was built into those prices to begin with?
$29 labour for about oohh 10mins tops.. so $174 per hour.. not a bad return

Had to source and purchase the pot, had to source and purchase the wire, had to source and mix the soils (picking up ingredients, you know, the stuff that makes up Bonsai mix) driving a trailer to the distributor to pick up said soils cement mixer to mix said Bonsai mix. Etc, Etc. Easy to see you are not in business or understand the reality of what goes into the Bonsai business. Ten minutes turns into hours rookie93.

[DavidWilloughby]

I think there needs to be a clarification here.

Is it actually about Bonsai in general or are we really talking about "Bonsai Nurseries" ?

My gut tells me, this is more about the nursery side of things than Bonsai in General. Two completely different topics in my opinion. I could be completely wrong here too.

Cheers

David

[63pmp]

Hi David,

I'm trying to keep it about bonsai in general, not about nurseries.



Everyone else:

I never really expected anyone trading bonsai to say they are overpriced, and I've met many a consumer who believe that everything is too expensive. I've even met people who got something for free and then complained about no free delivery.

This isn't about picking on nurseries. Its about the future of bonsai. And I wonder if it's as secure as some people think.

As always, it's about bum's on seats. If the number of people doing bonsai is the same as it was 20 years ago, then there is a problem, because the elites in the industry only exist because of the ground swell of ordinary folk doing the hobby. I'm sure certain cities are doing OK; Canberra seems to be one of these and I wonder how much this has to do with the arboretum, the activity of a few energetic, keen people, and median wages there.

Tien himself on a different thread said he knew of 4 nurseries in Melbourne that are not so happy. What does this say to folk?

I find it interesting that only one professional has spoken of the idea of regular, open to everyone, auctions, and the only one not to defend his prices. What does this say?

I'm not sure why professionals are defending there fees for service. This has nothing to do with the topic. So there is a lot of deflection going on here.

Regarding cost of time in running a business. I run a business, I understand the hidden costs. But these guys in Sydney aren't running around collecting materials to make up their soils in the shed, they just ring Aust'n Native Landscapes and have it delivered. Some may spend some time filling up small bags of zeolite, with a huge markup for their efforts. BUT THAT IS OK, LOTS OF BUSINESSES DO THAT.

What does it say if you have been trying to sell a tree unsuccessfully for three years? Well, either your not trying, your exceptionally greedy, or you have overpriced the product.

Markets with over inflated prices will inevitably collapse, people lose interest, new folk don't get involve to replace those that will inevitably move on. It will move or disappear, this happened to English watchmakers, then the Swiss watchmakers in their turn, and now Japanese watchmakers are watching the Chinese move in on the business.

I'm not sure that the growth in bonsai is keeping pace with general population growth, when this happens it's trouble. I think an avenue to supply, recycle and increase interest in bonsai is through an auction house that everyone can utilize. This makes competition apparently, and that's supposed to be good, isn't? hardly anyone on this thread has looked at this idea. Why is that? Is it dumb and unnecessary? No thoughts at all?

Paul

[DavidWilloughby]

Hi David,

I'm trying to keep it about bonsai in general, not about nurseries.

Sorry Paul, my misinterpretation. Its an good discussion.

Cheers

David